The forecast is contained in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) Africa Entertainment and Media Outlook 2026–2030, which estimates Nigeria’s compound annual growth rate at 6.9 per cent, ahead of the other two African markets examined in the report. Kenya’s industry is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5 per cent to reach $6 billion by 2030, while South Africa, the largest of the three markets, is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent to $19.4 billion.

The outlook follows a slight contraction in Nigeria’s entertainment and media revenue in 2025. The report’s figures put revenue at approximately $3.78 billion, compared with $3.84 billion in 2024, suggesting that the industry is expected to recover and expand over the coming years.

Connectivity services, covering mobile and fixed telecommunications, remain the largest contributor to Nigeria’s entertainment and media market. PwC projects revenue from the segment to increase from $2.5 billion in 2025 to $3.5 billion by 2030, accounting for about 66 per cent of the sector’s total revenue.

The report indicates that the expansion of digital entertainment will depend heavily on reliable and affordable internet access. Although streaming platforms, online games and other data-intensive services are attracting growing audiences, the cost and quality of connectivity will influence how quickly more Nigerians can participate.

Nigeria’s 5G penetration is projected to reach 35.3 per cent by 2030. The corresponding forecasts for Kenya and South Africa are 51.6 per cent and 86.8 per cent, respectively.

Streaming is among the fastest-growing areas of Nigeria’s media industry. Revenue from over-the-top video services, which allow audiences to watch content online, is forecast to rise from $31 million in 2025 to $78 million in 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 20.4 per cent.

PwC attributes the expansion to factors including telecommunications partnerships that can make access more affordable and the ability of streaming platforms to develop content for local audiences.

The report projects that Nigeria will have 1.6 million OTT subscriptions by 2030, with average revenue per subscription estimated at $42, well below the global average of more than $100. This highlights the importance of affordability and pricing strategies in a market where consumers have to balance entertainment spending with other household expenses.

Traditional television is expected to remain larger than online streaming in Nigeria throughout the forecast period. Revenue from conventional television is projected to grow from $257 million to $281 million by 2030, while OTT video revenue is expected to reach 27.8 per cent of traditional television revenue.

Gaming is another area expected to record strong growth. Nigeria’s video game revenue is projected to increase from $286 million in 2025 to approximately $430 million in 2030, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 8.5 per cent. This compares with a projected global growth rate of 3.6 per cent.

Social and casual games accounted for 77 per cent of Nigeria’s gaming revenue in 2025, with smartphones serving as the main access point for many players. The report suggests that continued mobile access and growing digital engagement could strengthen the sector’s contribution to the wider entertainment economy.

Digital advertising is also expected to expand as businesses increasingly seek to reach consumers online. Revenue from internet advertising is forecast to rise from $279 million in 2025 to $439 million by 2030, representing annual growth of 9.5 per cent.

Retail paid search advertising is projected to grow by 17.2 per cent annually and overtake traditional paid search by 2028. The shift reflects the growing importance of online shopping and digital channels in connecting businesses with potential customers.

Cinema is forecast to record the fastest growth rate among the categories examined, with revenue expected to increase from $10 million in 2025 to $29 million by 2030. Although the market remains relatively small, the projection points to potential opportunities for local film production, cinema operators and related businesses.

Nollywood continues to play an important role in this segment. According to the report, Nigerian films generated almost half of the country’s box-office revenue in 2025, underlining the importance of locally produced stories to the domestic cinema market.

The music, radio and podcast segment is also projected to grow, with revenue expected to rise from $316 million to $438 million between 2025 and 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent.

The expanding reach of Nigerian music at home and internationally is among the factors supporting the outlook. Digital platforms have created additional ways for artists and other audio creators to reach audiences, although the extent to which this translates into sustainable earnings will vary across the industry.

PwC’s assessment suggests that Nigeria’s entertainment and media market is expanding across several segments at the same time, rather than relying on growth in a single category. This creates opportunities for content creators, technology companies, advertisers, gaming businesses and cinema operators.

However, the projected expansion will depend on whether consumers can afford access to digital services, businesses can develop sustainable revenue models and the industry can overcome infrastructure and distribution challenges.

If the forecast is realised, Nigeria’s entertainment and media industry could become a larger contributor to economic activity and employment by 2030, with digital access and locally produced content playing central roles in its development.

Reporting by TalkNaija Media